Stochastic Structural Modeling   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Lars Holden  Petter Mostad  Bjørn Fredrik Nielsen  Jon Gjerde  Chris Townsend  Signe Ottesen 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(8):899-914

A consistent stochastic model for faults and horizons is described. The faults are represented as a parametric invertible deformation operator. The faults may truncate each other. The horizons are modeled as correlated Gaussian fields and are represented in a grid. Petrophysical variables may be modeled in a reservoir before faulting in order to describe the juxtaposition effect of the faulting. It is possible to condition the realization on petrophysics, horizons, and fault plane observations in wells in addition to seismic data. The transmissibility in the fault plane may also be included in the model. Four different methods to integrate the fault and horizon models in a common model is described. The method is illustrated on an example from a real petroleum field with 18 interpreted faults that are handled stochastically.  相似文献   

Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Jon Barnett  W. Neil Adger 《Climatic change》2003,61(3):321-337

Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.  相似文献   

Contens of Volume 59     

Henry F. Diaz  Jon K. Eischeid  Chris Duncan  Raymond S. Bradley 《Climatic change》2003,59(3):417-418

  相似文献   

Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between C and Be records     

Edouard Bard  Grant M. Raisbeck  Franoise Yiou  Jean Jouzel 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1997,150(3-4):453-462

For about the last 30 years it has been recognized that the high frequency component of the tree rings ¹⁴C/¹²C record is dominated by the modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar wind. In particular, it has been demonstrated that the three most recent periods of low sunspot occurrence were characterized by high values of atmospheric ¹⁴C/¹²C. During the last millennium other periods of high ¹⁴C/¹²C values were observed but their solar origin is still debatable. In the present work we compare these fluctuations with an independent record of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be measured in ice from the South Pole to check the solar origin of the observed ¹⁴C/¹²C variations. In order to compare quantitatively the results obtained on ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C, it is necessary to take into account the different behaviour of these two cosmogenic isotopes, and especially the damping effect of the carbon cycle in the case of ¹⁴C. As an input to a 12-box numerical model we used the relative fluctuations of the ¹⁰Be concentrations record measured in South Pole ice and converted it into a synthetic ¹⁴C record. We took into account the fact that ¹⁰Be modulation is enhanced in polar regions due to the orientation of the geomagnetic field. As expected, the fluctuations of the modelled ¹⁴C record are much smaller (a factor of 20) than those observed for the raw ¹⁰Be record. In addition, the variations are smoother and shifted in time by a few decades. The ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C variations closely resemble the ¹⁴C measurements obtained on tree rings (R = 0.81). In particular, it is easy to identify periods of maximal ¹⁴C/¹²C which correspond to solar activity minima centred at about 1060, 1320 (Wolf), 1500 (Spörer), 1690 (Maunder) and 1820 (Dalton) yr A.D. Cross-correlation calculations suggest that there is no significant lag between the ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C and the tree-ring ¹⁴C records. Our study strongly suggests the dominance of the solar modulation on the cosmonuclide production variations during the last millennium.  相似文献   

Effect of scallop shells and sediment grain size on phytoplankton flux to the bed     

C.A. Pilditch  C.W. Emerson  J. Grant 《Continental Shelf Research》1997,17(15):1869-1885

A flume study was made of bed skin friction and phytoplankton (Thalassiosira weissf ogii) deposition about a sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) mimic on a coarse (mean grain dia. =1200 μm), medium (615 μm) and fine (170 μm) quarry sand. Bed skin friction immediately upstream, and at one shell diameter downstream of the mimic was 1.2–2.4 times higher than ambient values (8.1 × 10⁻² Pa). Directly downstream of the mimic there was a region of near-zero skin friction. Bed diatom density was correlated with changes in skin friction; after 21 h, cell densities were 36–87% greater in the regions of high skin friction upstream and downstream of scallop than in control experiments. The pattern of bed diatom density about the scallop was similar in the coarse and medium sands, but deposition to the fine bed was not affected by the mimic. Diatom density was significantly correlated with grain diameter; deposition in the coarse bed was 2.3 times higher than in the medium sand, and 7.4 times higher than in the fine sand. A field experiment confirmed that the coarse sand was a greater sink of phytoplankton pigment than the fine sand. Previous studies and scaling arguments suggest that the differences in bed diatom density were controlled by the magnitude of interfacial solute fluxes. Regions of high skin friction about the mimic increased the porewater exchange, resulting in greater concentrations of diatoms retained within the bed. Similarly, the more permeable coarse sand would have a greater rate of porewater exchange than the fine sand, explaining the higher bed diatom density. Differences in the predicted volume of interstitial void space as a function of grain size closely matched the observed differences in bed diatom density. Results suggest that alteration of boundary layer flows by centimetre scale topography such as scallops, increases the flux of particulate organic matter toward the bed, but whether it is retained within the bed, and thus made available to the benthos is dependent on the sediment granularity.  相似文献   

Estimated N2O and CO2 Emissions as Influenced by Agricultural Practices in Canada   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

B. Grant  W. N. Smith  R. Desjardins  R. Lemke  C. Li 《Climatic change》2004,65(3):315-332

The Denitrification-Decompostion (DNDC) model was used to estimate the impact of change in management practices on N₂O emissions in seven major soil regions in Canada, for the period 1970 to 2029. Conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland would result in the greatest reduction in N₂O emissions, particularly in eastern Canada wherethe model estimated about 60% less N₂O emissions for thisconversion. About 33% less N₂O emissions were predicted for a changefrom conventional tillage to no-tillage in western Canada, however, a slight increase in N₂O emissions was predicted for eastern Canada. GreaterN₂O emissions in eastern Canada associated with the adoption of no-tillage were attributed to higher soil moisture causing denitrification, whereas the lower emissions in western Canada were attributed to less decomposition of soil organic matter in no-till versus conventional tilled soil. Elimination of summer fallow in a crop rotation resulted in a 9% decrease in N₂O emissions, with substantial emissions occurringduring the wetter fallow years when N had accumulated. Increasing N-fertilizer application rates by 50% increased average emissions by 32%,while a 50% decrease of N-fertilizer application decreased emissions by16%. In general, a small increase in N₂O emissions was predicted when N-fertilizer was applied in the fall rather than in the spring. Previous research on CO₂ emissions with the CENTURY model (Smith et al.,2001) allowed the quantification of the combined change in N₂O andCO₂ emissions in CO₂ equivalents for a wide range of managementpractices in the seven major soil regions in Canada. The management practices that have the greatest potential to reduce the combined N₂O andCO₂ emissions are conversion from conventional tillage to permanent grassland, reduced tillage, and reduction of summer fallow. The estimated net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction when changing from cultivated land to permanent grassland ranged from 0.97 (Brown Chernozem) to 4.24 MgCO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (BlackChernozem) for the seven soil regions examined. When changing from conventional tillage to no-tillage the net GHG emission reduction ranged from 0.33 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark GrayLuvisol). Elimination of fallow in the crop rotation lead to an estimated net GHG emission reduction of 0.43 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv.ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark Brown Chernozem). The addition of 50% more or 50% less N-fertilizer both resulted in slight increases in combined CO₂ and N₂O emissions. There was a tradeoff in GHG flux with greaterN₂O emissions and a comparable increase in carbon storage when 50% more N-fertilizer was added. The results from this work indicate that conversion of cultivated land to grassland, the conversion from conventional tillage to no-tillage, and the reduction of summerallow in crop rotations could substantially increase C sequestration and decrease net GHG emissions. Based on these results a simple scaling-up scenario to derive the possible impacts on Canada's Kyoto commitment has been calculated.  相似文献   

Are open fractures necessarily aligned with maximum horizontal stress?     

Stephen E Laubach  Jon E Olson  Julia F.W Gale 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2004,222(1):191-195

Fluid flow in fractured rock is an increasingly central issue in recovering water and hydrocarbon supplies and geothermal energy, in predicting flow of pollutants underground, in engineering structures, and in understanding large-scale crustal behaviour. Conventional wisdom assumes that fluids prefer to flow along fractures oriented parallel or nearly parallel to modern-day maximum horizontal compressive stress, or S_Hmax. The reasoning is that these fractures have the lowest normal stresses across them and therefore provide the least resistance to flow. For example, this view governs how geophysicists design and interpret seismic experiments to probe fracture fluid pathways in the deep subsurface. Contrary to these widely held views, here we use core, stress measurement, and fluid flow data to show that S_Hmax does not necessarily coincide with the direction of open natural fractures in the subsurface (>3 km depth). Consequently, in situ stress direction cannot be considered to predict or control the direction of maximum permeability in rock. Where effective stress is compressive and fractures are expected to be closed, chemical alteration dictates location of open conduits, either preserving or destroying fracture flow pathways no matter their orientation.  相似文献   

Analytical methods Of assessing the image quality associated with digital and photographic imaging systems     

Grant H. Thomson 《The Photogrammetric Record》2004,19(107):237-249

The introduction of digital cameras for aerial survey photography and use of scanners with processed aerial film present a number of technical questions concerning the way photography is to be acquired in the future. Among the questions to be addressed are the comparative metric properties of images acquired by each system and the associated image quality characteristics. The new digital camera systems will require very careful appraisal, using well-established methods of assessing metric quality already available to survey organisations. The questions concerning image quality are more difficult to answer, as they require very specialised instrumentation if measurements are to be made directly in practice. Over the course of the past several decades a more analytical approach to assessing image quality has emerged, and one that may be used by individuals. The method is particularly effective where information on the micro-image characteristics of products is made available by the manufacturers concerned. An outline is given of some considerations that need to be taken into account when using an analytical approach, with references given for further reading.  相似文献   

Aeolian abrasion and modes of fine particle production from natural red dune sands: an experimental study   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Joanna E. Bullard  Grant H. McTainsh†  Christa Pudmenzky† 《Sedimentology》2004,51(5):1103-1125

A series of experiments was conducted to determine the potential for aeolian abrasion of natural dune sands to produce fine particles (< 125 µm) by (1) the release of resident fines; (2) spalling, chipping and breakage of particles; and (3) the removal of grain surface coatings. Parent samples were obtained from the surfaces of four active continental dunes and abraded using a glass ‘test tube’ chamber for up to 120 h. The fine particles produced by this abrasion process were trapped at varying time intervals and subject to detailed particle‐size analyses using a Coulter Multisizer. The abrasion of untreated parent samples produced fine particles in one of two main size classes, < 10 µm and > 50 µm, but when the parent sample was sieved to exclude particles < 250 µm, relatively more material in the range 10–50 µm was produced. For unsieved parent samples, the size range associated with the dominant mode varied according to the length of the abrasion time. The coarsest mode (> 63 µm) was dominant during the first 16 h of abrasion, then became less significant and is thought to be associated with the release of resident fines into suspension. The finest mode (< 10 µm) was absent or very weak during the first 16 h of abrasion, then became more significant and, in some instances, dominated the distribution as abrasion continued. Removal of grain surface coatings is the main source of fine material < 10 µm, and this may be a significant source of fine material in areas where sands are dominated by subrounded and rounded particles. By comparison with previous studies of aeolian particle abrasion, these natural dune sands produced very low quantities of fine material (by weight), but their spatial extent makes them potentially a significant source of dust‐sized particles at the global scale.  相似文献   

The geology of kimberlite pipes of the Ekati property, Northwest Territories, Canada     

Tom Nowicki  Barbara Crawford  Darren Dyck  Jon Carlson  Ross McElroy  Peter Oshust  Herb Helmstaedt 《Lithos》2004,76(1-4):1-27

This paper reviews key characteristics of kimberlites on the Ekati property, NWT, Canada. To date 150 kimberlites have been discovered on the property, five of which are mined for diamonds. The kimberlites intrude Archean basement of the central Slave craton. Numerous Proterozoic diabase dykes intrude the area. The Precambrian rocks are overlain by Quaternary glacial sediments. No Phanerozoic rocks are present. However, mudstone xenoliths and disaggregated sediment within the kimberlites indicate that late-Cretaceous and Tertiary cover (likely <200 m) was present at the time of emplacement. The Ekati kimberlites range in age from 45 to 75 Ma. They are mostly small pipe-like bodies (surface area mostly <3 ha but up to 20 ha) that typically extend to projected depths of 400–600 m below current surface. Pipe morphologies are strongly controlled by joints and faults. The kimberlites consist primarily of variably bedded volcaniclastic kimberlite (VK). This is dominated by juvenile constituents (olivine and lesser kimberlitic ash) and variable amounts of exotic sediment (primarily mud), with minor amounts of xenolithic wall-rock material (generally <5%). Kimberlite types include: mud-rich resedimented VK (mRVK); olivine-rich VK (oVK); sedimentary kimberlite; primary VK (PVK); tuffisitic kimberlite (TK) and magmatic kimberlite (MK). The presence and arrangement of these rock types varies widely. The majority of bodies are dominated by oVK and mRVK, but PVK is prominent in the lower portions of certain kimberlites. TK is rare. MK occurs primarily as precursor dykes but, in a few cases, forms pipe-filling intrusions. The internal geology of the kimberlites ranges from simple single-phase pipes (RVK or MK), to complex bodies with multiple, distinct units of VK. The latter include pipes infilled with steep, irregular VK blocks/wedges and at least one case in which the pipe is occupied by well-defined sub-horizontal VK phases, including a unique, 100-m-thick graded sequence. The whole-rock compositions of VK samples suggest significant loss of kimberlitic fines during eruption followed by variable dilution by surface sediment and concurrent incorporation of kimberlitic ash. Diamond distribution within the kimberlites reflects the amount and nature of mantle material sampled by individual kimberlite phases, but is modified considerably by eruption and depositional processes. The characteristics of the Ekati kimberlites are consistent with a two-stage emplacement process: (1) explosive eruption/s causing vent clearing followed by formation of a significant tephra rim/cone of highly fragmented, olivine-enriched juvenile material with varying amounts of kimberlitic ash and surface sediments (predominantly mud); and (2) infilling of the vent by direct deposition from the eruption column and/or resedimentation of crater rim materials. The presence of less fragmented, juvenile-rich PVK in the lower portions of certain pipes and the intrusion of large volumes of MK to shallow levels in some bodies suggest emplacement of relatively volatile-depleted, less explosive kimberlite in the later stages of pipe formation and/or filling. Explosive devolatilisation of CO₂-rich kimberlite magma is interpreted to have been the dominant eruption mechanism, but phreatomagmatism is thought to have played a role and, in certain cases, may have been dominant.  相似文献